Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Disruption
40% Chance
Houthi attacks continue, but Saudi air defenses and rapid Aramco repairs prevent a large export outage. Oil retains a war-risk premium near recent highs, while broader markets treat the event as serious but not yet systemic.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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