Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
20% Chance
Oman and the United Nations restart back-channel talks after the Riyadh airport strike, while Washington presses for restraint. Even a temporary halt in attacks would remove some of the immediate geopolitical premium from crude.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.0%
- Energy -1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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