From todayDemocrat Sam Forstag and Republican Aaron Flint Nearly Tied in Montana’s 1st House District Poll

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  43%

  0.0%

  Flint Narrow Win

  Aaron Flint holds the Republican-leaning 1st District despite the late tied poll, helped by GOP turnout operations and JD Vance’s closing campaign stop. The result is close enough to show Democratic gains in western Montana but not enough for Sam Forstag to overcome the district’s partisan baseline.

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  37%

  0.0%

  Forstag Upset Win

  Sam Forstag converts the tied polling into a narrow Democratic upset, likely through strong Missoula turnout, gains among independents, and fatigue with national Republican messaging. The outcome would mark a significant Democratic breakthrough in Montana’s post-2021 two-district map.

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  12%

  0.0%

  Recount Fight

  The near-tied poll proves accurate and the election lands inside recount territory. Both campaigns challenge provisional ballots, absentee curing decisions, and county-level tabulation procedures, delaying a final result.

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  8%

  0.0%

  Race Breaks Late

  A late movement in turnout, undecided voters, or candidate favorability makes the final result less competitive than the tied poll suggests. This is less likely but plausible given the volatility of low-frequency House polling in a single Montana district.