Possible scenario
Negotiated Policy Pullback
42% Chance
The most likely path is a partial retreat after Microsoft, other large technology employers, universities, and business groups intensify lobbying. The White House preserves a tough immigration posture but narrows the most disruptive parts of the H-1B and OPT proposals to avoid damaging AI, cloud, and semiconductor hiring.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.5%
- Business Services +0.8%
Tickers
- MSFT+2.2%
- AMZN+1.6%
- GOOG+1.5%
- META+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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