Possible scenario
Hard-Line Enforcement
28% Chance
The administration maintains the immigration crackdown, treating Microsoft’s warning as evidence that large employers are resisting labor-market reforms. DHS, the Labor Department, and congressional allies continue investigations and proceed with higher fees and tighter adjudication standards.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.1%
- Business Services -1.0%
Tickers
- MSFT-3.9%
- AMZN-2.0%
- GOOG-1.8%
- META-1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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