Possible scenario
Court-Led Stalemate
20% Chance
Industry groups, universities, and affected workers challenge the new immigration measures in federal court. Litigation slows the policy shock but leaves employers uncertain about hiring, renewals, and sponsorship decisions for several quarters.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Business Services +0.4%
Tickers
- MSFT+1.3%
- AMZN+0.9%
- META+0.9%
- GOOG+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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