Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation
20% Chance
Moscow responds to repeated attacks on its largest cities with a large strike package against Ukrainian energy, transport, and military infrastructure. This is a plausible escalation channel because Russia has repeatedly answered symbolic or long-range Ukrainian strikes with mass drone and missile barrages.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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