Possible scenario
Air Defense Containment
45% Chance
Russia treats the St. Petersburg closure as a serious but containable air-defense problem. The most likely path is more electronic warfare, mobile air-defense deployments, and recurring but short airspace restrictions around Pulkovo Airport rather than an immediate strategic escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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