Possible scenario
Campaign Expands Northwest
25% Chance
Ukraine uses longer-range drones to pressure military, logistics, and energy assets around St. Petersburg and the Gulf of Finland. This would signal that northwestern Russia is now a regular target set, increasing risk premia in energy and defense-linked assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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