These projections diverge from a GSG poll released Oct. 17, conducted by a Democratic pollster, which found the race in a statistical tie with Lombardo leading 48% to Ford's 47%. Although the incumbent was the heavy favorite at the start of the election, Kalshi traders currently expect a narrow victory for Ford by approximately 1,000 votes. Ford has campaigned on a platform of reining in the expansion of data centers.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Aaron Ford Hits 58% Win Probability to Flip Nevada Governorship
US Politics8 hours ago
Prediction markets now favor the Democratic challenger in the race for the state's highest office. Betting platforms list Aaron Ford as the favorite to defeat incumbent Republican Governor Joe Lombardo, with Polymarket assessing Ford's probability of victory at 57% against Lombardo's 42%. Kalshi recently recorded a peak of 58% for Ford, the highest odds for the candidate since August 2, which would mark a partisan flip of the governorship.
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