Possible scenario
Lombardo Holds
30% Chance
Joe Lombardo survives despite Democrats' statewide early-vote lead, using incumbency, crime messaging, and cross-party endorsements to win late deciders. This would mark a polling and early-vote interpretation miss rather than a major national-market event.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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