Possible scenario
Unrest Quickly Contained
45% Chance
Italian authorities restore order in Milan, Bologna, and Turin through heavier policing, targeted arrests, and municipal talks with unions and student groups. Demonstrations continue but shrink in size, limiting political and market spillovers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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