Possible scenario
Rolling Urban Protests
30% Chance
The unrest remains geographically contained but persists across northern cities, with intermittent clashes and transport disruptions. The government avoids broad concessions, while unions use the moment to press wage and rent demands.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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