Possible scenario
National Escalation Risk
18% Chance
The unrest expands beyond spontaneous city riots into a coordinated labor and political challenge to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government. Larger demonstrations in Rome, Naples, and Florence would raise concerns about fiscal concessions and Italian political stability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.2%
- Consumer Services -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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