Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Intensifies
25% Chance
Moscow responds to the widening drone campaign with a heavier missile and Shahed drone barrage against Ukrainian infrastructure. The escalation remains inside the Russia-Ukraine theater in the base case, but the risk of accidents near NATO borders rises.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.