Possible scenario
Deep Strikes Expand
20% Chance
Ukraine follows the airport disruptions with broader attacks on Russian military and logistics nodes across European Russia. The campaign seeks to stretch Russian air defenses and impose domestic costs without directly involving NATO.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.