Possible scenario
Intermittent Airport Disruption
45% Chance
Ukraine continues using long-range drones to disrupt Russian aviation and military logistics, but most closures remain temporary. Moscow and regional airports operate with delays rather than prolonged shutdowns, keeping the event within the pattern of recent raids.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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