Possible scenario
Privacy Backlash Intensifies
20% Chance
Congressional Democrats, state attorneys general, and privacy advocates focus on whether passport records can legally be shared with outside organizations for election administration. The dispute becomes less about voter eligibility and more about federal data governance, consent, retention, and nonprofit access to sensitive identity records.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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