Possible scenario
Limited Rollout Proceeds
30% Chance
The administration moves forward with a controlled version of the program, arguing that passport data is needed to support citizenship verification after Congress and the White House pushed federal voter-list initiatives. Participation is concentrated in Republican-led or closely contested states that already tightened voter rolls in 2026.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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