Possible scenario
Renewed Border Provocations
20% Chance
Pyongyang may test Seoul’s tolerance with further gray-zone activity, such as additional construction, mine emplacement, warning broadcasts, GPS interference, or short-range military signaling. This would deepen the risk premium without necessarily crossing into sustained combat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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