Contained Border Standoff

The most likely path is a tense but bounded standoff in which Seoul protests, Pyongyang denies wrongdoing or ignores the demand, and both sides avoid direct fire. The 1953 armistice framework, U.S. Forces Korea deterrence, and the risk of uncontrolled escalation constrain both governments despite worsening rhetoric.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.