Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
25% Chance
Seoul channels the incident through the United Nations Command, the U.S.-South Korea alliance, and public armistice-violation claims rather than kinetic retaliation. This path contains the immediate risk premium while preserving political pressure on Pyongyang.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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