Possible scenario
Blocked Map Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Supreme Court's latest stay remains in force through key election-administration deadlines. Missouri election officials proceed under the pre-redraw congressional map or a court-approved fallback, preserving a more competitive Democratic-held district around Kansas City or St. Louis.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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