Possible scenario
Vance Consolidates Field
25% Chance
Vance remains the leading Trump-aligned 2028 figure and absorbs much of the activist and donor energy that Kennedy would need. Kennedy either defers to Vance or struggles to distinguish himself from the broader populist conservative field.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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