Possible scenario
Exploration Without Launch
35% Chance
Kennedy uses the signal to raise his national profile, test donor appetite, and influence the Republican debate without immediately committing to a full campaign. Given the presence of JD Vance, Ted Cruz, and Trump-aligned power centers, a non-launch or delayed launch remains the most likely path.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.