Possible scenario
Kyiv Escalation Strike
20% Chance
A more escalatory scenario is a concentrated attack on Kyiv, including government, military-command, intelligence or symbolic targets. This would raise diplomatic pressure on the G7 and NATO to expand air-defense aid and sanctions enforcement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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