Possible scenario
Energy Grid Barrage
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a large combined missile-and-drone strike against Ukraine’s electricity grid, heating infrastructure and defense-industrial sites. This matches Russia’s repeated autumn strategy of degrading Ukrainian power supply before winter while using strategic bombers to saturate air defenses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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