Possible scenario
Strict Contained Enforcement
40% Chance
Taiwan implements the US deal mainly through end-use checks, foundry audits, and license denials for China-bound advanced AI accelerators. The policy becomes a durable compliance burden but does not immediately disrupt most non-AI semiconductor trade.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
- NVDA-1.2%
- AMD-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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