Possible scenario
Licensing Carve-Outs Emerge
20% Chance
Washington and Taipei clarify technical thresholds and create a predictable licensing route for lower-performance chips and verified civilian users. Markets read this as a managed restriction rather than a broad semiconductor decoupling.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.6%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Telecommunications +0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA+1.8%
- AMD+0.9%
- AMZN+0.4%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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