Possible scenario
China Retaliates Selectively
25% Chance
Beijing responds without breaking broader trade talks, using regulatory tools against US and allied semiconductor firms. The retaliation is calibrated to impose costs while preserving China’s access to essential legacy chips and equipment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.7%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.7%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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