Possible scenario
Supply Relief Arrives
28% Chance
A more favorable outcome is that imports, refinery yield shifts and logistics adjustments cool the New York market. The earlier clearance for European airlines to use American jet fuel suggests cross-Atlantic flows can adjust when economics become compelling.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.5%
- Energy -0.9%
Tickers
- DAL+2.9%
- +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.