Possible scenario
Prices Stay Elevated
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that New York jet fuel remains expensive but does not break into a full shortage. Hormuz disruptions and tight Atlantic Basin supply keep spot prices elevated while airlines and fuel buyers ration marginal demand through higher fares and surcharges.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- JBLU-2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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