Possible scenario
Hormuz Risk Escalates
20% Chance
A less likely but market-moving scenario is that Hormuz disruptions worsen and insurers, shippers or governments price in a longer disturbance. This would lift Brent and refined-product premiums while hurting fuel-intensive transport shares.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.3%
- Energy +2.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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