Possible scenario
Presidential Purge Holds
38% Chance
The most likely path is that President Rodrigo Paz Pereira's government frames the police operation as an anti-corruption and institutional-cleanup drive against holdovers in the Attorney General's Office. Courts and Congress object but do not immediately reverse the arrests, allowing the executive to consolidate control over prosecutions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Tickers
- -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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