Possible scenario
Judicial Backlash Succeeds
27% Chance
A competing branch of government moves quickly to contain the crisis, ruling that police exceeded their authority by occupying prosecution offices. The government accepts a partial rollback to avoid reviving memories of the 2024 coup attempt and to protect its pro-market reform agenda.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Tickers
- NUAG+1.3%
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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