Baghdad Political Crisis

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.7%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A strike causes civilian or Popular Mobilization Forces casualties, shifting the issue from a security operation to a sovereignty crisis for Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Baghdad could restrict foreign military overflights and escalate the dispute through parliament or the United Nations.

What it moves

Energy+1.1%
Consumer Services−1.0%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Baghdad Political Crisis

Keeping an eye on this scenario?