Possible scenario
Talks Drag On
30% Chance
The parties agree to continue contacts but fail to settle access, custody, or forensic questions. Qatar keeps the file compartmentalized from broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy, while Iran uses periodic statements to maintain domestic pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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