Possible scenario
Humanitarian Resolution
45% Chance
Iran and Qatar use the new talks to narrow the dispute into a humanitarian and consular channel. Qatar has strong incentives to keep its role as mediator in U.S.-Iran contacts, while Iran can claim it recovered personnel without widening the confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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