Possible scenario
Diplomatic Escalation
18% Chance
Talks expose incompatible accounts of the March shootdown, leading Tehran to accuse Qatar of withholding information or violating norms on captured personnel. Both governments still have incentives to avoid military escalation, but rhetoric and diplomatic steps intensify.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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