Possible scenario
Short-Term Punt
25% Chance
Republicans decide a multi-year hike is too politically exposed before the midterms and settle for a shorter extension. This preserves some debt-ceiling uncertainty for the next Congress, especially if control of the House changes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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