Possible scenario
Clean Extension Passes
40% Chance
Senate Republicans conclude that removing debt-ceiling risk before a possible Democratic House takeover is safer than preserving leverage. John Thune works with House GOP leaders and the White House to pass a clean or near-clean increase that carries the limit beyond Donald Trump's term.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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