Possible scenario
Post-Midterm Bargain
20% Chance
Republicans lose the House or appear certain to lose it, increasing pressure for a lame-duck debt-ceiling deal. Senate GOP leaders negotiate with Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries and the Trump White House to avoid handing Democrats a fresh default fight in 2027.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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