Possible scenario
Prolonged Political Stalemate
34% Chance
The most likely negative baseline is a drawn-out dispute in which Abbas keeps elections suspended and Israel refuses to unlock the aid framework. The PA remains functional but weakened, with donor diplomacy preventing a sharper breakdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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