Possible scenario
Funding Deal Revived
35% Chance
Washington, Brussels, and Arab mediators push Israel and the Palestinian Authority back toward the 2025 peace-deal framework. Abbas keeps the postponement temporary by accepting a new election timetable tied to phased disbursement of the $7B package.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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