Possible scenario
PA Stability Deteriorates
21% Chance
The election delay and missing aid intensify public anger over PA legitimacy and living conditions. Security forces contain most unrest, but the risk of clashes in the West Bank rises and donors face pressure to prevent institutional failure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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