Possible scenario
Insurgency Broadens North
25% Chance
The killing of a brigadier general proves to be the first visible sign of a wider ISIS campaign after the U.S. withdrawal. Militants exploit gaps between Iraqi federal forces, Kurdish units, and local tribal networks in disputed areas.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.