Possible scenario
Baghdad Security Surge
20% Chance
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani responds with a visible security operation to show that Iraqi forces can contain ISIS without U.S. combat troops. The campaign reduces immediate political pressure but risks alienating communities if arrests and checkpoints become heavy-handed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.