Possible scenario
Coordination Stalls
25% Chance
The Vatican channel remains open, but the parties cannot quickly agree on route security, cargo inspection, or who verifies compliance. This outcome is plausible because Ukraine will resist any arrangement that legitimizes Russian control while Russia will seek control over aid access.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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