Possible scenario
Aid Corridor Opens
45% Chance
Ukraine, the Vatican, and Russian occupation authorities agree on a narrow logistics protocol for aid into Oleshky. This is the most likely path because Putin has already endorsed the Vatican plan and Pope Leo XIV is now pressing Zelenskyy to coordinate rather than reject the channel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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