Possible scenario
Ceasefire Breaches
20% Chance
The local ceasefire fails because of shelling, drone activity, or accusations that one side used the humanitarian pause for military advantage. Given the active front-line environment near the Dnipro, a breach is a significant but not dominant risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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